10 Predictions for 2024

10 Predictions for 2024

“You can never predict how (the) market will react. You can model it. You may try to predict it, but weather and markets and risk, only God knows because only he has seen tomorrow.”─ Rakesh Jhunjhunwala We do not have a crystal ball to understand the future, and, if...
Treasury Yield Jitters

Treasury Yield Jitters

“I’m still trying to process why long-end interest rates are increasing.─ Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of ChicagoSeptember 2023 The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index is the most well-known benchmark for the U.S. bond market. Over the past 20...
Flipping the Playbook on Short-Term Treasuries

Flipping the Playbook on Short-Term Treasuries

“For on one side lay Scylla and on the other divine Charybdis terribly sucked down the salt water of the sea. Verily, whenever she belched it forth, like a cauldron on a great fire she would seethe and bubble in utter turmoil, and high overhead the spray would fall on...
Winter is Coming: Signs of an Impending Recession

Winter is Coming: Signs of an Impending Recession

“Winter is coming.” ─ Ned Stark, “Game of Thrones” In the investment world, “winter” can be viewed as a synonym to recession, and, technically, winter is always coming at an uncertain point in the future. However, a number of recent economic signals highlight...
10 Predictions for 2023

10 Predictions for 2023

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked” ─ Warren Buffett Last year we made our first attempt at providing 10 investment-related predictions for the upcoming year, and we are going to repeat the process for 2023. Before starting...
The U.S. Dollar Wrecking Ball

The U.S. Dollar Wrecking Ball

“When you remember we are all mad, the mysteries disappear and life stands explained.” ─ Mark Twain In past letters, we have addressed the craziness of the current investment era multiple times. In August 2020, 10-year Treasury bond yields reached an all-time low of...