10 Predictions for 2022
“Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present.” ─ Marcus Aurelius, “Meditations” Making predictions is always tricky, and short-term forecasts are seemingly more difficult...
The Butterfly Effect: Today’s Supply Chain Shortages
“It fell to the floor, an exquisite thing, a small thing, that could upset balances and knock down a line of small dominoes and then big dominoes and then gigantic dominoes, all down the years across time…It couldn’t change things. Killing one butterfly couldn’t be...
Is The Current Inflation Going To Be Transitory Or Persistent?
“Most of the recent rise in inflation appears likely to be transitory, and FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] participants expected inflation to subside in coming quarters to rates at or below the level of two percent or a bit less.” ─ Ben Bernanke, former...
The Guns and Butter Era Redux
“Viewed in the abstract, the Federal Reserve System had the power to abort the inflation at its incipient stage fifteen years ago or at any later point, and it has the power to end it today. At any time within that period, it could have restricted the money supply and...